4
Freestate
3yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 80
Presque Isle Downs · Race 7 - Allowance · 1m 70y
#7
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲2
Strength12%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 5th | −4 |
| 2025-12-11 | Turfway Park | ? | 7th | 11th | −4 |
| 2025-10-25 | Keeneland | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2025-09-19 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-08-29 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength79%
Delivery trend +4.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/07/2025 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 17% | +0.01 |
| 01/08/2025 | 6th | 5/2 | 87% | 29% | -0.58 |
| 29/08/2025 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 19/09/2025 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 57% | -0.30 |
| 25/10/2025 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |
| 11/12/2025 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 40% | -0.13 |
| 29/07/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 01/09/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 75% | +0.38 |