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3

Happy Prince

3yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 92

Presque Isle Downs · Race 7 - Allowance · 1m 70y

#4

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

6%

Place Prob

13%

Rank

#4

Class Advantage Projection

Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: -1.8
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Churchill Downs 20/06/2025 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 78 · 5f Fm 119 · below its mark20/06/2025 · OR 78 par20/06C6OR 78C6 @ Ellis Park 04/08/2025 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 79 · 1m110y Fm 119 · below its mark04/08/2025 · OR 79 parC6 @ Keeneland 25/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 77 · 1m1f Fm 119 · beat its mark25/10/2025 · OR 77 par25/10C6OR 77C6 @ Churchill Downs 15/11/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 85 · 1m110y 119 · below its mark15/11/2025 · OR 85 parC6 @ Churchill Downs 29/11/2025 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 82 · 1m Fm 119 · beat its mark29/11/2025 · OR 82 par29/11C6OR 82C6 @ Turfway Park 04/01/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 94 · 1m 120 · below its mark04/01/2026 · OR 94 parC9 @ Churchill Downs 31/05/2026 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 90 · 1m Fm 118 · below its mark31/05/2026 · OR 90 par31/05C9OR 90C9 @ Ellis Park 12/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 92 · 1m Slo 118 · below its mark12/07/2026 · OR 92 parC6 @ Presque Isle Downs 08/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 89 · 1m70y 121 · beat its mark08/09/2026 · OR 89 par8/09C6OR 89projClass-projected finish: 5th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-08Presque Isle Downs?1st2nd−1
2026-07-12Ellis Park?3rd7th−4
2026-05-31Churchill Downs?10th14th−4
2026-01-04Turfway Park?4th5th−1
2025-11-29Churchill Downs?3rd4th−1
2025-11-15Churchill Downs?3rd4th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/0615/1131/058/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 717% of fieldRange 3-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength16%

Delivery trend -7.2% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/06/20257th16/116%33%+0.18
04/08/20254th14/126%57%+0.31
25/10/20252nd25/10%91%+0.91
15/11/20253rd7/282%67%-0.15
29/11/20253rd11/893%80%-0.13
04/01/20264th9/276%73%-0.04
31/05/202610th15/890%10%-0.80
12/07/20263rd6/168%71%+0.03
08/09/20261st5/287%100%+0.13