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5

Outsider

5yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 92

Presque Isle Downs · Race 7 - Allowance · 1m 70y

#1

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

20%

Place Prob

24%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 3.3)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Presque Isle Downs 25/06/2025 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 84 · 6f Fas 123 · below its mark25/06/2025 · OR 84 par25/06C8OR 84C8 @ Presque Isle Downs 09/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 4 · OR 84 · 1m70y 123 · beat its mark09/07/2025 · OR 84 parC8 @ Presque Isle Downs 22/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 83 · 1m70y 125 · beat its mark22/07/2025 · OR 83 par22/07C8OR 83C5 @ Presque Isle Downs 15/08/2025 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 87 · 1m110y Fas 125 · below its mark15/08/2025 · OR 87 parC5 @ Presque Isle Downs 03/09/2025 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 90 · 1m70y Fas 123 · below its mark03/09/2025 · OR 90 par3/09C5OR 90C8 @ Presque Isle Downs 07/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 87 · 6f Fas 123 · below its mark07/07/2026 · OR 87 parC8 @ Presque Isle Downs 28/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 86 · 6f110y 123 · beat its mark28/07/2026 · OR 86 par28/07C8OR 86C5 @ Presque Isle Downs 18/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 86 · 1m70y 123 · beat its mark18/08/2026 · OR 86 parC5 @ Presque Isle Downs 07/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 90 · 1m70y 123 · beat its mark07/09/2026 · OR 90 par7/09C5OR 90projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-07Presque Isle Downs?3rd3rd0
2026-08-18Presque Isle Downs?3rd3rd0
2026-07-28Presque Isle Downs?1st4th−3
2026-07-07Presque Isle Downs?2nd5th−3
2025-09-03Presque Isle Downs?8th8th0
2025-08-15Presque Isle Downs?7th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today25/0615/0828/077/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▲
Strength81%

Delivery trend +2.1% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
25/06/20256th11/271%17%-0.54
09/07/20251st3/184%100%+0.16
22/07/20251st11/271%100%+0.29
15/08/20257th9/153%14%-0.38
03/09/20258th13/266%0%-0.66
07/07/20262nd7/491%75%-0.16
28/07/20261st7/491%100%+0.09
18/08/20263rd11/271%75%+0.04
07/09/20263rd3/184%75%-0.09