IvyArcIvyArc
2

Triple Start

6yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 91

Presque Isle Downs · Race 7 - Allowance · 1m 70y

#2

Rank

Odds

7/2

Win Prob

67%

Place Prob

44%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲2
Strength3%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.

Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 3.8)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC7 @ Mountaineer 14/09/2025 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 93 · 1m3f Fm 123 · below its mark14/09/2025 · OR 93 par14/09C7OR 93C8 @ Mountaineer 07/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 88 · 1m 123 · below its mark07/10/2025 · OR 88 parC8 @ Tampa Bay Downs 24/04/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 89 · 1m Fm 118 · below its mark24/04/2026 · OR 89 par24/04C8OR 89C8 @ Presque Isle Downs 03/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 77 · 1m 123 · below its mark03/06/2026 · OR 77 parC8 @ Presque Isle Downs 22/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 76 · 1m70y 125 · beat its mark22/06/2026 · OR 76 par22/06C8OR 76C8 @ Presque Isle Downs 22/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 81 · 1m70y 123 · beat its mark22/07/2026 · OR 81 parC8 @ Presque Isle Downs 04/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 88 · 1m70y 123 · beat its mark04/08/2026 · OR 88 par4/08C8OR 88C5 @ Presque Isle Downs 18/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 94 · 1m70y 123 · beat its mark18/08/2026 · OR 94 parC5 @ Presque Isle Downs 07/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 96 · 1m70y 123 · below its mark07/09/2026 · OR 96 par7/09C5OR 96projClass-projected finish: 1st of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-07Presque Isle Downs?2nd2nd0
2026-08-18Presque Isle Downs?2nd2nd0
2026-08-04Presque Isle Downs?1st4th−3
2026-07-22Presque Isle Downs?1st4th−3
2026-06-22Presque Isle Downs?1st4th−3
2026-06-03Presque Isle Downs?2nd5th−3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today14/093/064/087/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +5.9% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
14/09/20256th10/382%29%-0.54
07/10/20256th16/116%0%-0.16
24/04/202610th20/10%0%0.00
03/06/20262nd16/116%80%+0.64
22/06/20261st11/486%100%+0.14
22/07/20261st11/271%100%+0.29
04/08/20261st11/1094%100%+0.06
18/08/20262nd15/261%88%+0.27
07/09/20262nd4/179%88%+0.09