1
Frosty The Soldier
6yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 87
Presque Isle Downs · Race 8 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#2
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
51%
Place Prob
31%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength17%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-10 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-07-22 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-02-13 | Turfway Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-01-03 | Turfway Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-04-18 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-04-04 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 950% of fieldRange 4-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength27%
Delivery trend -2.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/02/2025 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 05/03/2025 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 86% | +0.28 |
| 19/03/2025 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 04/04/2025 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 17% | -0.10 |
| 18/04/2025 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 29% | -0.48 |
| 03/01/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 13/02/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 80% | -0.07 |
| 22/07/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 10/08/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 33% | -0.14 |