Hard Mission
6yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 91
Presque Isle Downs · Race 8 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#6
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.2 /10 (raw 4.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-10 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-07-14 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-06-24 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-06-10 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-28 | Turfway Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -1.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/05/2025 | 10th | 16/1 | 16% | 10% | -0.06 |
| 22/08/2025 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 17% | -0.46 |
| 15/03/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 78% | +0.01 |
| 28/03/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 10/06/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 75% | -0.13 |
| 24/06/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 71% | +0.00 |
| 14/07/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 10/08/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 67% | -0.07 |
| 26/08/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 33% | -0.43 |