9
Noble Star
5yo Horse · 8-11 · OR 78
Presque Isle Downs · Race 8 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#5
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength25%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 5.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-08-26 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-09 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +5.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08/2025 | 12th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 02/09/2025 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 30/09/2025 | 2nd | 33/1 | 0% | 89% | +0.89 |
| 15/10/2025 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 09/06/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 60% | +0.23 |
| 23/06/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 14/07/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 50% | -0.16 |
| 29/07/2026 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 26/08/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |