IvyArcIvyArc
5

Craven Force

2yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 56

Redcar · Happy Birthday Mark Holton Nursery · 7f 219y

#10

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Best effort in his qualifying runs when seventh of 11 in maiden at Beverley (5f, good) in May. Upped markedly in trip for his nursery debut/reappearance (has also been gelded).

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼2
Strength80%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.9 /10 (raw 8.7)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +2.3
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Beverley 23/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR - · 5f Gd 130 · HIGHER CLASS23/0454 @ Beverley 04/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR - · 5f Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS4/0542 @ York 14/05/2026 · Pos 13th of 15 · OR - · 6f Gd 133 · HIGHER CLASS14/052projClass-projected finish: 6th of 10
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-05-14York213th8th+4
2026-05-04Beverley47th5th+2
2026-04-23Beverley56th5th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/044/0514/05
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1022% of fieldRange 5-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength49%

Delivery trend -3.7% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/04/20266th16/116%38%+0.22
04/05/20267th16/116%40%+0.24
14/05/202613th80/10%14%+0.14