Dakota Brave
2yo Colt · 9-6 · OR 62
Redcar · Happy Birthday Mark Holton Nursery · 7f 219y
#4
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 4.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 | Catterick | 5 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-07-08 | Chepstow | 4 | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-06-25 | Newcastle | 4 | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2026-05-17 | Hamilton | 2 | 5th | 0th | +4 |
| 2026-04-30 | Lingfield | 5 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -5.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/04/2026 | 6th | 11/1 | 42% | 17% | -0.25 |
| 17/05/2026 | 5th | 17/2 | 55% | 20% | -0.35 |
| 25/06/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 75% | -0.12 |
| 08/07/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 22/07/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |