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7

Diplomacy

2yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 52

Redcar · Happy Birthday Mark Holton Nursery · 7f 219y

#6

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#6

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Little impact in 3 outings over 7f in recent weeks. May prove a different proposition now tackling a nursery over this longer trip.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼2
Strength77%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 8.0)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +2.3
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ York 24/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR - · 7f Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS24/0734 @ Beverley 12/08/2026 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR - · 7f75y Goo 130 · HIGHER CLASS12/0844 @ Musselburgh 25/08/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR - · 7f15y Gd 133 · HIGHER CLASS25/084projClass-projected finish: 7th of 10
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-25Musselburgh49th7th+2
2026-08-12Beverley49th7th+2
2026-07-24York36th2nd+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today24/0712/0825/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1044% of fieldRange 7-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength21%

Delivery trend -8.7% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
24/07/20266th40/10%29%+0.29
12/08/20269th80/10%27%+0.27
25/08/20269th50/10%11%+0.11