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Hope Of Acklam

2yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 65

Redcar · Happy Birthday Mark Holton Nursery · 7f 219y

#3

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

8%

Rank

#3

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Showed a lot more second time up when narrow runner-up in a course seller (7f) last month and took another step forward when third of 9 in maiden at Musselburgh (7f, good to firm) 11 days ago. One to consider upped further in trip for his nursery bow.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼2
Strength77%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 4.7)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.7
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Thirsk 14/08/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR - · 6f Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS14/0845 @ Redcar 22/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR - · 7f Goo 130 · HIGHER CLASS22/0854 @ Musselburgh 12/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR - · 7f15y Goo 130 · HIGHER CLASS12/094projClass-projected finish: 1st of 10
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-12Musselburgh43rd1st+2
2026-08-22Redcar52nd1st+1
2026-08-14Thirsk49th7th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today14/0822/0812/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1078% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength100%

Delivery trend +1.2% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
14/08/20269th33/10%20%+0.20
22/08/20262nd11/142%90%+0.48
12/09/20263rd9/153%75%+0.22