6

King Of Persia

2yo Colt · 8-12 · OR 54

Redcar · Happy Birthday Mark Holton Nursery · 7f 219y

#7

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Didn't show a great deal in 3 outings over 6f/7f in midsummer and failed to improve right away on nursery bow after 8 weeks off at Leicester (7f, good) recently. Upped to 1m but may need more time.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move2
Strength59%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 7.0)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Carlisle 15/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR - · 5f182y Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS15/0644 @ Carlisle 24/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR - · 6f195y GF 130 · HIGHER CLASS24/0644 @ Pontefract 17/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR - · 6f Goo 130 · HIGHER CLASS17/0746 @ Leicester 08/09/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 57 · 7f GS 127 · beat its mark08/09/2026 · OR 57 par8/096OR 57projClass-projected finish: 8th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-08Leicester68th8th0
2026-07-17Pontefract46th4th+2
2026-06-24Carlisle47th5th+2
2026-06-15Carlisle47th5th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/0624/0617/078/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1011% of fieldRange 9-10 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength0%

Delivery trend -16.7% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/06/20267th25/10%33%+0.33
24/06/20267th40/10%40%+0.40
17/07/20266th33/10%17%+0.17
08/09/20268th12/137%22%-0.15