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4

Lopefernza

2yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 61

Redcar · Happy Birthday Mark Holton Nursery · 7f 219y

#5

Rank

Odds

15/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#5

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Standout effort when sixth of 12 in novice at Southwell (7f) in July. Likely to be seen in a better light now tackling a nursery for the first time upped to 1m.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼3
Strength92%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 6.3)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.3
Today: 6
Class gap: +2.7
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Wolverhampton 16/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR - · 6f20y Std 130 · HIGHER CLASS16/0642 @ Southwell 27/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR - · 7f14y Std 127 · HIGHER CLASS27/0724 @ Haydock 03/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR - · 6f212y Sft 124 · HIGHER CLASS3/094projClass-projected finish: 5th of 10
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-03Haydock47th5th+2
2026-07-27Southwell26th1st+4
2026-06-16Wolverhampton46th4th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/0627/073/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1067% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength57%

Delivery trend -16.1% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/06/20266th18/15%38%+0.32
27/07/20266th50/10%55%+0.55
03/09/20267th22/10%0%0.00