Son Of A Fish

2yo Colt · 9-8 · OR 64

Redcar · Happy Birthday Mark Holton Nursery · 7f 219y

#2

Rank

Odds

2/1

Win Prob

6%

Place Prob

16%

Rank

#2

★★★★★ Timeform

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark

Move▼3

Strength98%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.7 /10 (raw 4.5)

Highest class: 2

Recent avg: C3.5

Today: 6

Class gap: +2.5

Higher-class runs: 3

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-08	Leicester	6	3rd	3rd	0	7.0
2026-08-24	Windsor	2	7th	2nd	+4	7.8
2026-08-15	Doncaster	3	3rd	-1th	+3	5.0
2026-07-06	Lingfield	3	5th	1st	+3	8.6

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish2nd of 1089% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%

▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price

Trend▼

Strength82%

Delivery trend -11.8% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 10. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
06/07/2026	5th	28/1	0%	56%	+0.56
15/08/2026	3rd	12/1	37%	33%	-0.04
24/08/2026	7th	33/1	0%	33%	+0.33
08/09/2026	3rd	5/1	74%	78%	+0.04