Wells Fargo Stage
2yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 50
Redcar · Happy Birthday Mark Holton Nursery · 7f 219y
#9
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.3 /10 (raw 8.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13 | Beverley | 6 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Ripon | 5 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2026-06-24 | Carlisle | 4 | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-05-18 | Redcar | 5 | 10th | 9th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -14.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/05/2026 | 10th | 50/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 24/06/2026 | 5th | 66/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 06/07/2026 | 9th | 125/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 13/08/2026 | 10th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |