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7

Cheeky Chesca

2yo Filly · 9-3 · OR 66

Redcar · Weatherbys Stallion Book Nursery · 5f 217y

#1

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

90%

Place Prob

64%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Seen to maximum effect to finally get off the mark in 8-runner nursery at Catterick (6f, good) just over a fortnight ago, making all having broke well from low draw. 6 lb rise could well leave her vulnerable.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength43%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 4.3)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Redcar 26/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR - · 5f217y Goo 122 · HIGHER CLASS26/0545 @ Wetherby 04/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR - · 5f110y Goo 1224 @ Hamilton 17/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR - · 5f7y Goo 122 · HIGHER CLASS17/0645 @ Nottingham 25/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 65 · 6f18y Goo 128 · beat its mark25/06/2026 · OR 65 par5 @ Catterick 15/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 64 · 5f GF 125 · beat its mark15/07/2026 · OR 64 par15/075OR 644 @ Doncaster 01/08/2026 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 62 · 6f111y GF 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark01/08/2026 · OR 62 par6 @ Catterick 17/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 61 · 5f212y Goo 131 · beat its mark17/08/2026 · OR 61 par17/086OR 614 @ Beverley 30/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR 60 · 5f Hvy 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/08/2026 · OR 60 par6 @ Catterick 08/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 60 · 5f212y Goo 130 · beat its mark08/09/2026 · OR 60 par8/096OR 60projClass-projected finish: 5th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-08Catterick61st2nd−1
2026-08-30Beverley43rd2nd+1
2026-08-17Catterick63rd4th−1
2026-08-01Doncaster49th8th+1
2026-07-15Catterick57th7th0
2026-06-25Nottingham57th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today26/0525/0617/088/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 11100% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength80%

Delivery trend +1.0% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 11.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
26/05/20262nd14/126%88%+0.61
04/06/20262nd5/287%88%+0.01
17/06/20263rd10/382%60%-0.22
25/06/20267th5/287%14%-0.73
15/07/20267th3/184%33%-0.51
01/08/20269th50/10%27%+0.27
17/08/20263rd13/266%71%+0.06
30/08/20263rd8/158%83%+0.25
08/09/20261st7/282%100%+0.18