Excessive
2yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 56
Redcar · Weatherbys Stallion Book Nursery · 5f 217y
#10
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 6.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Carlisle | 5 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-08-11 | Carlisle | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Southwell | 5 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Pontefract | 4 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-06-09 | Carlisle | 3 | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -6.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/06/2026 | 4th | 66/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 21/06/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 20% | +0.04 |
| 23/07/2026 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 11/08/2026 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 09/09/2026 | 10th | 28/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |