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5

Flower Youmzain

2yo Filly · 9-4 · OR 67

Redcar · Weatherbys Stallion Book Nursery · 5f 217y

#3

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

6%

Rank

#3

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Ardad filly who looked unlucky not to go very close when third of 13 in novice at Carlisle (6f, good to soft) a fortnight ago, around ½ length down and closing when snatched up final 50 yds. One to look out for on nursery debut.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength60%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 3.8)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Pontefract 08/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR - · 6f Goo 1288/0654 @ Hamilton 25/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR - · 5f7y Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS25/0644 @ Beverley 13/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR - · 5f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS13/0844 @ Carlisle 09/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR 67 · 5f182y Goo 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark09/09/2026 · OR 67 par9/094OR 67projClass-projected finish: 4th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-09Carlisle43rd2nd+1
2026-08-13Beverley43rd2nd+1
2026-06-25Hamilton44th3rd+1
2026-06-08Pontefract55th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today8/0625/0613/089/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1190% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +6.4% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
08/06/20265th11/142%60%+0.18
25/06/20264th11/271%50%-0.21
13/08/20263rd28/10%60%+0.60
09/09/20263rd11/271%83%+0.12