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10

Lairy Mary

2yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 58

Redcar · Weatherbys Stallion Book Nursery · 5f 217y

#7

Rank

Odds

15/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#7

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Off the mark at the fourth attempt in claimer at Beverley in May and back to that sort of level when second of 10 in nursery there (5f, good) just under 6 weeks ago, well drawn. Mark unchanged and not without each-way hope.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength33%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 4.8)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Beverley 15/04/2026 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR - · 5f Goo 12515/0454 @ Beverley 04/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR - · 5f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Thirsk 16/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR - · 5f Goo 125 · HIGHER CLASS16/0546 @ Beverley 27/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR - · 5f Goo 1225 @ Wetherby 04/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR - · 5f110y Goo 1224/0656 @ Catterick 08/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 60 · 5f GF 130 · beat its mark08/07/2026 · OR 60 par6 @ Thirsk 24/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 60 · 6f Goo 130 · beat its mark24/07/2026 · OR 60 par24/076OR 606 @ Beverley 13/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 58 · 5f Goo 128 · beat its mark13/08/2026 · OR 58 par13/086OR 58projClass-projected finish: 7th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-13Beverley62nd3rd−1
2026-07-24Thirsk66th7th−1
2026-07-08Catterick64th5th−1
2026-06-04Wetherby56th6th0
2026-05-27Beverley61st2nd−1
2026-05-16Thirsk46th5th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/0427/0524/0713/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1170% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength73%

Delivery trend -3.2% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 11. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/04/202610th33/10%10%+0.10
04/05/20263rd20/10%75%+0.75
16/05/20266th18/15%44%+0.39
27/05/20261st11/271%100%+0.29
04/06/20266th12/137%38%+0.01
08/07/20264th11/142%63%+0.20
24/07/20266th11/142%55%+0.12
13/08/20262nd15/261%89%+0.28