IvyArcIvyArc
6

Mubehir

2yo Gelding · 9-3 · OR 66

Redcar · Weatherbys Stallion Book Nursery · 5f 217y

#11

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#11

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Son of Sioux Nation who left his opening pair of exploits in his wake when second of 10 in a Beverley novice last month. Gelded after but did too much too soon when eighth of 13 in maiden back there (5f) last week. Makes nursery bow.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength24%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.7 /10 (raw 7.0)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Beverley 20/07/2026 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR - · 5f Goo 13020/0754 @ Pontefract 05/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR - · 6f Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS5/0845 @ Beverley 12/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR - · 5f Goo 13312/0855 @ Beverley 16/09/2026 · Pos 8th of 13 · OR 68 · 5f Goo 133 · beat its mark16/09/2026 · OR 68 par16/095OR 68projClass-projected finish: 9th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-16Beverley58th8th0
2026-08-12Beverley52nd2nd0
2026-08-05Pontefract47th6th+1
2026-07-20Beverley511th11th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/075/0812/0816/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1120% of fieldRange 1-11 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength57%

Delivery trend +3.4% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/07/202611th33/10%0%0.00
05/08/20267th150/10%14%+0.14
12/08/20262nd125/10%89%+0.89
16/09/20268th17/255%42%-0.14