IvyArcIvyArc
7

Speyside

2yo Colt · 9-7

Redcar · British EBF Supports Racing To School Future Stayers Novice Stakes (GBB Race) · 7f

#1

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

100%

Place Prob

94%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Promising 3 lengths third in a 7f maiden at Glorious Goodwood but went backwards from that when well held in another maiden at the York Ebor meeting. Has a tongue tie applied in his bid to bounce back.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength45%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 7.0)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.0
Today: 3
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Goodwood 01/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR - · 7f GF 128 · HIGHER CLASS1/0822 @ York 21/08/2026 · Pos 11th of 14 · OR - · 7f GS 133 · HIGHER CLASS21/082projClass-projected finish: 1st of 1
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-21York211th10th+1
2026-08-01Goodwood23rd2nd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today1/0821/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 8-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -118.1% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
01/08/20263rd40/10%83%+0.83
21/08/202611th8/158%23%-0.35