3
Sheikhnshah
3yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 76
Redcar · weatherbysshop.co.uk Novice Stakes (GBB Race) · 7f
#1
Rank
Odds
15/8
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
95%
Rank
#1
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength14%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | Hamilton | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-18 | Southwell | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-07 | Redcar | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-11-27 | Newcastle | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 4-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength33%
Delivery trend -32.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/11/2025 | 3rd | 22/1 | 0% | 82% | +0.82 |
| 07/05/2026 | 3rd | 17/2 | 55% | 78% | +0.23 |
| 18/06/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 83% | +0.20 |
| 11/08/2026 | 3rd | 4/9 | 98% | 71% | -0.26 |