10
Borjina
3yo Filly · 9-1 · OR 72
Redcar · Weatherbys & Birdie Calendars Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 2f 1y
#8
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength17%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Southwell | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | Redcar | 5 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-07-03 | Doncaster | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-04 | Wetherby | 5 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-04-22 | Catterick | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-09-25 | Newcastle | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1227% of fieldRange 4-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength26%
Delivery trend -4.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/09/2025 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 63% | +0.36 |
| 22/04/2026 | 1st | 4/9 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 04/06/2026 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 33% | -0.46 |
| 03/07/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 89% | +0.07 |
| 29/07/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 33% | -0.43 |
| 03/09/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 71% | +0.19 |