8
Ciao Capo
3yo Gelding · 9-2 · OR 73
Redcar · Weatherbys & Birdie Calendars Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 2f 1y
#2
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#2
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength30%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.3
Today: 4
Class gap: -1.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Beverley | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-08-12 | Beverley | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-10 | York | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-04 | Wetherby | 6 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-05-12 | Beverley | 6 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-04-16 | Ripon | 6 | 4th | 6th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1291% of fieldRange 2-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength67%
Delivery trend -1.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/10/2025 | 6th | 18/1 | 5% | 17% | +0.11 |
| 31/10/2025 | 4th | 17/2 | 55% | 57% | +0.02 |
| 24/11/2025 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 16/04/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 70% | +0.54 |
| 12/05/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 04/06/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 10/07/2026 | 6th | 22/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 12/08/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 29/08/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 71% | -0.13 |