5
Domination
3yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 77
Redcar · Weatherbys & Birdie Calendars Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 2f 1y
#7
Rank
Odds
13/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength32%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | Southwell | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-09 | Doncaster | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Doncaster | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-19 | Nottingham | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-16 | Ripon | 6 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2025-10-15 | Nottingham | 5 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1255% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength66%
Delivery trend -3.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05/2025 | 13th | 22/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 24/07/2025 | 7th | 28/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 20/09/2025 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 15/10/2025 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 38% | -0.41 |
| 16/04/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 19/05/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 63% | +0.05 |
| 05/06/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 09/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 71% | -0.05 |
| 16/08/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 82% | +0.16 |