3
Everyoneknowsadave
4yo Gelding · 9-11 · OR 77
Redcar · Weatherbys & Birdie Calendars Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 2f 1y
#5
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength21%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Doncaster | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-31 | Southwell | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-08-03 | Ripon | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-18 | Nottingham | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-13 | Leicester | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-02 | Pontefract | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1264% of fieldRange 6-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength20%
Delivery trend -4.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/03/2026 | 4th | 18/1 | 5% | 40% | +0.35 |
| 11/04/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 38% | -0.15 |
| 07/05/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 70% | +0.44 |
| 02/06/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 71% | +0.00 |
| 13/06/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 89% | +0.15 |
| 18/07/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 03/08/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 25% | -0.57 |
| 31/08/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 83% | +0.31 |
| 11/09/2026 | 8th | 5/1 | 74% | 56% | -0.17 |