12
Mayflower Billy
3yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 66
Redcar · Weatherbys & Birdie Calendars Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 2f 1y
#11
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.9 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 4
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Chester | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-08-31 | Southwell | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-07-02 | Nottingham | 5 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-06-11 | Newbury | 5 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-05-16 | Doncaster | 6 | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-04-23 | Beverley | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1245% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength95%
Delivery trend +3.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/08/2025 | 10th | 100/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 10/04/2026 | 4th | 80/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 23/04/2026 | 8th | 80/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 16/05/2026 | 2nd | 40/1 | 0% | 92% | +0.92 |
| 11/06/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 02/07/2026 | 6th | 11/1 | 42% | 29% | -0.14 |
| 31/08/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 78% | +0.17 |
| 11/09/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 70% | +0.70 |