Night Wolf
3yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 76
Redcar · Weatherbys & Birdie Calendars Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 2f 1y
#12
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 5.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | Kempton | 4 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-04-29 | Pontefract | 3 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2025-10-27 | Redcar | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-08-22 | York | 2 | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -18.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 12th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08/2025 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 27/10/2025 | 3rd | 1/1 | 95% | 75% | -0.20 |
| 29/04/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 19/08/2026 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |