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Percy's Daydream

4yo Filly · 10-0 · OR 80

Redcar · Weatherbys & Birdie Calendars Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 2f 1y

#1

Rank

Odds

11/2

Win Prob

100%

Place Prob

99%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Successful twice this season, the latest when making all at Beverley in June. After a couple of lesser efforts, did well under the circumstances when second over this C&D 2 weeks ago, faring best of those who raced prominently. Can make her presence felt.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength73%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 4 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.1 /10 (raw 3.4)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 4
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Doncaster 24/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 74 · 1m2f43y Goo 142 · beat its mark24/04/2026 · OR 74 par24/045OR 744 @ Catterick 21/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 4 · OR 79 · 1m4f13y Goo 135 · below its mark21/05/2026 · OR 79 par4 @ Leicester 08/06/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 78 · 1m2f Goo 129 · below its mark08/06/2026 · OR 78 par8/064OR 784 @ Beverley 23/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 77 · 1m1f207y Goo 135 · beat its mark23/06/2026 · OR 77 par1 @ Beverley 04/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 84 · 1m4f23y Goo 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/07/2026 · OR 84 par4/071OR 843 @ Newmarket 17/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 87 · 1m2f GF 139 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/07/2026 · OR 87 par3 @ Pontefract 26/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 84 · 1m2f5y Goo 140 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark26/07/2026 · OR 84 par26/073OR 843 @ Salisbury 13/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 82 · 1m4f5y Goo 140 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/08/2026 · OR 82 par4 @ Redcar 09/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 80 · 1m2f1y Goo 137 · beat its mark09/09/2026 · OR 80 par9/094OR 80projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-09Redcar42nd2nd0
2026-08-13Salisbury35th4th+1
2026-07-26Pontefract34th3rd+1
2026-07-17Newmarket34th3rd+1
2026-07-04Beverley14th0th+3
2026-06-23Beverley41st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today24/0423/0626/079/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 12100% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +5.0% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
24/04/20261st9/276%100%+0.24
21/05/20264th11/271%0%-0.71
08/06/202610th20/10%0%0.00
23/06/20261st13/266%100%+0.34
04/07/20264th25/10%25%+0.25
17/07/20264th20/10%40%+0.40
26/07/20264th3/184%25%-0.59
13/08/20265th25/10%33%+0.33
09/09/20262nd11/142%90%+0.48