6
Poet's Dawn
11yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 72
Redcar · Weatherbys & Birdie Calendars Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 2f 1y
#10
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength30%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Ripon | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-08-22 | Redcar | 4 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-08-15 | Doncaster | 5 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-08-03 | Ripon | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | Nottingham | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-18 | Ripon | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 129% of fieldRange 5-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength10%
Delivery trend -5.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 11th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/06/2026 | 6th | 28/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 18/06/2026 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 17% | -0.46 |
| 06/07/2026 | 3rd | 17/2 | 55% | 75% | +0.20 |
| 18/07/2026 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 30/07/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 03/08/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 15/08/2026 | 7th | 17/2 | 55% | 0% | -0.55 |
| 22/08/2026 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 01/09/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 67% | -0.02 |