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Rizal

4yo Gelding · 10-2 · OR 82

Redcar · Weatherbys & Birdie Calendars Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 2f 1y

#3

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#3

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Promise for Johnny Murtagh in 2025 and made second start for current yard a winning one in handicap at Doncaster (1¼m) in June. Comfortably followed up at Hamilton (1½m), before racing too freely when well held at Newmarket last month. Worth another chance back down in trip.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength12%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 3.9)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.4
Today: 4
Class gap: -1.4
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Fairyhouse 06/06/2025 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR - · 1m2f Gd 1346/06C8BHA68 @ Galway 01/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 16 · OR 68 · 1m98y Yie 139 · beat its mark01/08/2025 · OR 68 parBHA72 @ Bellewstown 26/08/2025 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 72 · 7f195y Goo 132 · below its mark26/08/2025 · OR 72 par26/0872OR 72BHA70 @ Galway 09/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 15 · OR 70 · 1m98y Sft 140 · beat its mark09/09/2025 · OR 70 parBHA72 @ Curragh 04/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 18 · OR 72 · 1m Sft 139 · below its mark04/10/2025 · OR 72 par4/1072OR 725 @ Kempton 04/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 70 · 1m2f219y Sta 135 · beat its mark04/03/2026 · OR 70 par5 @ Doncaster 26/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 70 · 1m2f43y GF 135 · beat its mark26/06/2026 · OR 70 par26/065OR 704 @ Hamilton 17/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 3 · OR 77 · 1m4f15y Goo 130 · beat its mark17/07/2026 · OR 77 par4 @ Newmarket 21/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 4 · OR 82 · 1m4f Goo 143 · below its mark21/08/2026 · OR 82 par21/084OR 82projClass-projected finish: 8th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-21Newmarket44th4th0
2026-07-17Hamilton41st1st0
2026-06-26Doncaster51st2nd−1
2026-03-04Kempton53rd4th−1
2025-10-04CurraghBHA726th10th−3
2025-09-09GalwayBHA702nd6th−3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/069/0926/0621/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1236% of fieldRange 6-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength10%

Delivery trend -9.7% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/06/20258th28/10%30%+0.30
01/08/20253rd12/137%87%+0.50
26/08/20254th3/184%57%-0.27
09/09/20252nd9/488%93%+0.05
04/10/20256th10/382%71%-0.12
04/03/20263rd5/287%82%-0.05
26/06/20261st7/593%100%+0.07
17/07/20261st4/596%100%+0.04
21/08/20264th8/1196%0%-0.96