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Emperor's Son

5yo Gelding · 9-10 · OR 69

Redcar · racingtv/freetrial Handicap · 5f

#6

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Successful twice for Richard & Peter Fahey in first half of 2026. Not disgraced for new yard with eighth of 20 in handicap at Ayr (5f, soft) 6 days ago. Needs to build on it.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength40%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.6 /10 (raw 7.1)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Wolverhampton 02/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 67 · 5f21y Std 132 · beat its mark02/01/2026 · OR 67 par2/015OR 675 @ Southwell 13/01/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 70 · 4f214y Std 135 · beat its mark13/01/2026 · OR 70 par5 @ Newcastle 31/01/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 70 · 5f Std 135 · beat its mark31/01/2026 · OR 70 par31/015OR 705 @ Newcastle 06/02/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 70 · 5f Std 135 · below its mark06/02/2026 · OR 70 par5 @ Pontefract 08/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 68 · 6f Goo 128 · beat its mark08/06/2026 · OR 68 par8/065OR 685 @ Hamilton 17/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 68 · 6f6y Goo 133 · beat its mark17/06/2026 · OR 68 par4 @ Newmarket 04/07/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 70 · 6f GF 125 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark04/07/2026 · OR 70 par4/074OR 705 @ Catterick 17/08/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 70 · 5f Goo 140 · below its mark17/08/2026 · OR 70 par5 @ Ayr 17/09/2026 · Pos 8th of 20 · OR 69 · 5f Goo 137 · beat its mark17/09/2026 · OR 69 par17/095OR 69projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-17Ayr58th8th0
2026-08-17Catterick59th9th0
2026-07-04Newmarket410th9th+1
2026-06-17Hamilton51st1st0
2026-06-08Pontefract54th4th0
2026-02-06Newcastle59th9th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/016/024/0717/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength70%

Delivery trend +7.6% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/01/20261st4/179%100%+0.21
13/01/20263rd15/890%60%-0.30
31/01/20266th13/266%44%-0.21
06/02/20269th5/174%20%-0.54
08/06/20264th9/153%67%+0.14
17/06/20261st15/261%100%+0.39
04/07/202610th20/10%0%0.00
17/08/20269th20/10%20%+0.20
17/09/20268th50/10%63%+0.63