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5

Guernsey Lady

3yo Filly · 9-6 · OR 66

Redcar · racingtv/freetrial Handicap · 5f

#2

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

10%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Sole win came at Lingfield (5f) last May. Posted a pair of good placed efforts at Bath and Ffos Las in early summer but came in last of 6 after a break in handicap at Lingfield (5f, all-weather) last month. Bounce back is required.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength63%

What the class read says

Favourable class profile — form adjusted for the quality of opposition looks competitive here. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 5.7)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Haydock 04/07/2025 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 78 · 5f Goo 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/07/2025 · OR 78 par4/074OR 782 @ Goodwood 30/07/2025 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 77 · 5f Gd 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/07/2025 · OR 77 par4 @ Windsor 18/08/2025 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 75 · 5f21y Goo 129 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark18/08/2025 · OR 75 par18/084OR 755 @ Lingfield 23/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 73 · 6f1y Std 133 · beat its mark23/09/2025 · OR 73 par4 @ Chelmsford City 09/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 73 · 5f Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark09/10/2025 · OR 73 par9/104OR 735 @ Lingfield 31/12/2025 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 72 · 6f1y Std 130 · below its mark31/12/2025 · OR 72 par5 @ Bath 22/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 70 · 5f160y Goo 135 · beat its mark22/05/2026 · OR 70 par22/055OR 705 @ Ffos Las 04/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 69 · 5f GS 132 · beat its mark04/06/2026 · OR 69 par5 @ Lingfield 08/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 68 · 5f6y Std 132 · below its mark08/08/2026 · OR 68 par8/085OR 68projClass-projected finish: 5th of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-08Lingfield56th6th0
2026-06-04Ffos Las52nd2nd0
2026-05-22Bath53rd3rd0
2025-12-31Lingfield57th7th0
2025-10-09Chelmsford City44th3rd+1
2025-09-23Lingfield53rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/0723/0922/058/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength61%

Delivery trend -4.2% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/07/20253rd4/179%50%-0.29
30/07/20259th66/10%20%+0.20
18/08/20258th18/15%13%+0.07
23/09/20253rd16/116%80%+0.64
09/10/20254th10/147%67%+0.19
31/12/20257th20/10%0%0.00
22/05/20263rd6/168%75%+0.07
04/06/20262nd7/282%86%+0.04
08/08/20266th7/163%0%-0.63