6
Sergeant Mayer
5yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 63
Redcar · racingtv/freetrial Handicap · 5f
#1
Rank
Odds
13/8
Win Prob
99%
Place Prob
88%
Rank
#1
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength23%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.7 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Leicester | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-03 | Nottingham | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-18 | Ripon | 6 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-05-18 | Redcar | 6 | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2026-04-21 | Pontefract | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-07 | Pontefract | 6 | 11th | 12th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +5.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08/2025 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 70% | +0.23 |
| 13/10/2025 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 57% | +0.10 |
| 21/10/2025 | 8th | 17/2 | 55% | 46% | -0.09 |
| 07/04/2026 | 11th | 14/1 | 26% | 17% | -0.10 |
| 21/04/2026 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |
| 18/05/2026 | 9th | 18/1 | 5% | 20% | +0.15 |
| 18/07/2026 | 6th | 11/1 | 42% | 50% | +0.08 |
| 03/08/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 08/09/2026 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |