3
Tees Aggregates
4yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 67
Redcar · racingtv/freetrial Handicap · 5f
#5
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength49%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.1 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Beverley | 5 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-08-17 | Catterick | 5 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | York | 4 | 14th | 13th | +1 |
| 2026-07-06 | Ripon | 4 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-06-22 | Catterick | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Hamilton | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 60% of fieldRange 3-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength11%
Delivery trend -2.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/05/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 40% | -0.28 |
| 16/05/2026 | 5th | 28/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 28/05/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 71% | -0.08 |
| 10/06/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 67% | -0.15 |
| 22/06/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 06/07/2026 | 7th | 11/1 | 42% | 25% | -0.17 |
| 25/07/2026 | 14th | 40/1 | 0% | 19% | +0.19 |
| 17/08/2026 | 10th | 11/2 | 71% | 10% | -0.61 |
| 30/08/2026 | 10th | 20/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |