11
Ganthorpe
3yo Gelding · 9-12 · OR 46
Redcar · AJA Novice Amateur Jockeys' Handicap · 7f
#11
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength23%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 6.7)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Thirsk | 6 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-08-12 | Beverley | 6 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-07-17 | Nottingham | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-29 | Pontefract | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Redcar | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-29 | Carlisle | 6 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 120% of fieldRange 7-12 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength15%
Delivery trend -0.3% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 12th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/03/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 56% | -0.21 |
| 26/04/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 71% | +0.24 |
| 07/05/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 54% | +0.01 |
| 29/05/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 20/06/2026 | 7th | 11/1 | 42% | 33% | -0.09 |
| 29/06/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 14% | -0.12 |
| 17/07/2026 | 7th | 15/2 | 61% | 14% | -0.46 |
| 12/08/2026 | 10th | 28/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 14/09/2026 | 10th | 50/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |