Irish Incentive
3yo Filly · 11-1 · OR 63
Redcar · AJA Novice Amateur Jockeys' Handicap · 7f
#7
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 6.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | Doncaster | 6 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-04-23 | Southwell | 5 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-04-06 | Kempton | 4 | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-03-21 | Southwell | 4 | 2nd | 0th | +2 |
| 2026-02-26 | Chelmsford City | 5 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2025-11-05 | Musselburgh | 2 | 5th | 0th | +4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +10.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/11/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 56% | +0.19 |
| 26/02/2026 | 8th | 3/1 | 84% | 13% | -0.72 |
| 21/03/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 75% | -0.04 |
| 06/04/2026 | 5th | 18/1 | 5% | 56% | +0.50 |
| 23/04/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 16/05/2026 | 12th | 25/1 | 0% | 15% | +0.15 |