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King Of War

7yo Gelding · 11-5 · OR 64

Redcar · AJA Novice Amateur Jockeys' Handicap · 7f

#3

Rank

Odds

11/2

Win Prob

2%

Place Prob

8%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Gained a fourth win at Brighton when successful there in June. After a couple of below-par performances, ran respectably in a higher grade when fourth of 7 back at Brighton a month ago. Capable of going well at this level.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength70%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.8)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.3
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Lingfield 27/10/2025 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 62 · 7f1y Std 130 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark27/10/2025 · OR 62 par27/105OR 626 @ Lingfield 04/11/2025 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR 62 · 7f1y Std 135 · beat its mark04/11/2025 · OR 62 par5 @ Brighton 09/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 61 · 7f216y Gd 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark09/06/2026 · OR 61 par9/065OR 615 @ Brighton 22/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 61 · 6f210y Goo 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/06/2026 · OR 61 par5 @ Brighton 30/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 61 · 7f216y GF 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/06/2026 · OR 61 par30/065OR 615 @ Chester 10/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 68 · 7f1y Goo 142 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark10/07/2026 · OR 68 par4 @ Ascot 24/07/2026 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR 68 · 7f GF 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark24/07/2026 · OR 68 par24/074OR 685 @ Epsom Downs 14/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 67 · 7f3y Goo 141 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark14/08/2026 · OR 67 par4 @ Brighton 23/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 65 · 6f210y Goo 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark23/08/2026 · OR 65 par23/084OR 65projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-23Brighton44th2nd+2
2026-08-14Epsom Downs58th7th+1
2026-07-24Ascot411th9th+2
2026-07-10Chester53rd2nd+1
2026-06-30Brighton55th4th+1
2026-06-22Brighton51st0th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/1022/0624/0723/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1282% of fieldRange 1-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength55%

Delivery trend -3.8% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/10/20258th17/255%0%-0.55
04/11/20254th33/10%75%+0.75
09/06/20263rd25/10%82%+0.82
22/06/20261st9/488%100%+0.12
30/06/20265th2/189%33%-0.56
10/07/20263rd3/184%71%-0.13
24/07/202611th28/10%0%0.00
14/08/20268th17/255%13%-0.43
23/08/20264th14/126%50%+0.24