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3

Pedro The Poet

5yo Gelding · 11-2 · OR 61

Redcar · AJA Novice Amateur Jockeys' Handicap · 7f

#9

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Maiden in Ireland who stepped forward from his recent stable debut when fourth of 6 in handicap at Catterick (1¾m) 15 days ago. Task is now to build on latest effort dropped significantly in trip.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength10%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 10.0 /10 (raw 8.4)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C7.0
Today: 6
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Down Royal 01/11/2025 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR - · 2m190y Yie 1681/11C?C0 @ Down Royal 26/12/2025 · Pos 13th of 15 · OR - · 2m1f53y Yie 168C8 @ Dundalk 13/02/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR - · 1m4f Std 13713/02C8C8 @ Curragh 15/03/2026 · Pos 15th of 23 · OR - · 1m Hvy 147C8 @ Dundalk 27/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR - · 1m Std 13527/03C8BHA70 @ Navan 25/04/2026 · Pos 15th of 23 · OR 70 · 1m2f40y Goo 140 · below its mark25/04/2026 · OR 70 parC8 @ Dundalk 26/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 68 · 1m2f150y Std 135 · below its mark26/05/2026 · OR 68 par26/05C8OR 685 @ Carlisle 27/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 67 · 1m1f Goo 157 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/08/2026 · OR 67 par6 @ Catterick 08/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 64 · 1m5f192y Goo 156 · beat its mark08/09/2026 · OR 64 par8/096OR 64projClass-projected finish: 8th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-08Catterick64th4th0
2026-08-27Carlisle56th5th+1
2026-05-26Dundalk?8th10th−2
2026-04-25NavanBHA7015th16th−1
2026-03-27Dundalk?5th7th−2
2026-03-15Curragh?15th17th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today1/1115/0326/058/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1255% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength79%

Delivery trend +2.1% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
01/11/20256th16/116%0%-0.16
26/12/202513th80/10%14%+0.14
13/02/20264th200/10%67%+0.67
15/03/202615th80/10%36%+0.36
27/03/20265th66/10%64%+0.64
25/04/202615th40/10%36%+0.36
26/05/20268th20/10%36%+0.36
27/08/20266th14/126%29%+0.02
08/09/20264th20/10%40%+0.40