12
Ryefield
3yo Gelding · 9-12 · OR 46
Redcar · AJA Novice Amateur Jockeys' Handicap · 7f
#12
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength23%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 8.2 /10 (raw 8.3)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | Catterick | 6 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-08-12 | Beverley | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Doncaster | 6 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-06-04 | Wetherby | 6 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-19 | Newcastle | 6 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-11-07 | Newcastle | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1218% of fieldRange 4-12 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength18%
Delivery trend +0.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/09/2025 | 2nd | 80/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 06/10/2025 | 10th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |
| 23/10/2025 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 07/11/2025 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 43% | -0.10 |
| 19/05/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 36% | +0.10 |
| 04/06/2026 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 01/08/2026 | 10th | 50/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 12/08/2026 | 7th | 80/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 26/08/2026 | 11th | 28/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |