IvyArcIvyArc
5

Big Daddy Hank

4yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 45

Thistledown · Race 1 - Claiming · 5f 110y

#4

Rank

Odds

7/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#4

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼2
Strength83%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 4 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.3 /10 (raw 3.1)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: +1.7
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Thistledown 06/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR - · 5f110y 119 · HIGHER CLASS6/10C6C6 @ Mahoning Valley 23/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 45 · 6f 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark23/10/2025 · OR 45 par23/10C6OR 45C6 @ Mahoning Valley 02/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 30 · 6f 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/04/2026 · OR 30 par2/04C6OR 30C6 @ Thistledown 28/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 38 · 5f110y Fas 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/04/2026 · OR 38 par28/04C6OR 38C6 @ Thistledown 13/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 40 · 6f Fas 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/05/2026 · OR 40 par13/05C6OR 40C6 @ Thistledown 20/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 43 · 5f110y 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 43 par20/06C6OR 43C5 @ Thistledown 02/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 48 · 6f 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/09/2026 · OR 48 par2/09C5OR 48projClass-projected finish: 1st of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-02Thistledown?6th3rd+3
2026-06-20Thistledown?1st-1th+2
2026-05-13Thistledown?2nd0th+2
2026-04-28Thistledown?2nd0th+2
2026-04-02Mahoning Valley?2nd0th+2
2025-10-23Mahoning Valley?6th4th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/1028/042/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength87%

Delivery trend -0.4% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 8.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/10/20253rd9/153%71%+0.19
23/10/20256th9/153%38%-0.15
02/04/20262nd9/276%89%+0.13
28/04/20262nd6/168%88%+0.19
13/05/20262nd3/184%90%+0.06
20/06/20261st11/893%100%+0.07
02/09/20266th14/126%29%+0.02