Dublin Time
3yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 38
Thistledown · Race 1 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
49%
Place Prob
44%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 3.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-13 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2026-07-23 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-06-20 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +1.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 75% | -0.01 |
| 23/07/2026 | 4th | 11/8 | 93% | 57% | -0.36 |
| 13/08/2026 | 6th | 10/3 | 82% | 29% | -0.54 |
| 25/08/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |