IvyArcIvyArc
7

Triangulo Rojo

3yo Gelding · 8-3 · OR 55

Thistledown · Race 1 - Claiming · 5f 110y

#3

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

5%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength70%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Mahoning Valley 08/12/2025 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR 97 · 6f 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark08/12/2025 · OR 97 par8/12C6OR 97C6 @ Mahoning Valley 23/12/2025 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 65 · 6f 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark23/12/2025 · OR 65 parC6 @ Mahoning Valley 09/02/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 24 · 6f Slo 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark09/02/2026 · OR 24 par9/02C6OR 24C9 @ Mahoning Valley 24/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 104 · 6f Gd 118 · below its mark24/02/2026 · OR 104 parC9 @ Mahoning Valley 17/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 32 · 6f Gd 118 · beat its mark17/03/2026 · OR 32 par17/03C9OR 32C6 @ Mahoning Valley 02/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 39 · 6f 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/04/2026 · OR 39 parC5 @ Thistledown 29/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 44 · 5f110y 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/04/2026 · OR 44 par29/04C5OR 44C8 @ Thistledown 20/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 50 · 5f110y Slo 117 · beat its mark20/05/2026 · OR 50 parC8 @ Thistledown 02/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 54 · 6f 115 · below its mark02/09/2026 · OR 54 par2/09C8OR 54projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-02Thistledown?6th6th0
2026-05-20Thistledown?3rd3rd0
2026-04-29Thistledown?2nd-1th+3
2026-04-02Mahoning Valley?1st-1th+2
2026-03-17Mahoning Valley?2nd3rd−1
2026-02-24Mahoning Valley?2nd3rd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today8/1224/0229/042/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 857% of fieldRange 3-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength46%

Delivery trend -6.3% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 8. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
08/12/202511th25/10%0%0.00
23/12/20256th33/10%29%+0.29
09/02/20267th40/10%14%+0.14
24/02/20262nd12/137%89%+0.52
17/03/20262nd7/163%80%+0.17
02/04/20261st9/276%100%+0.24
29/04/20262nd7/163%80%+0.17
20/05/20263rd8/1597%60%-0.37
02/09/20266th9/276%38%-0.39