8
Worthy Of It All
3yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 33
Thistledown · Race 1 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength48%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-25 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-08-04 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-07-23 | Thistledown | ? | 8th | 6th | +2 |
| 2026-06-20 | Thistledown | ? | 8th | 6th | +2 |
| 2026-05-13 | Thistledown | ? | 8th | 6th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 843% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength68%
Delivery trend +4.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/04/2026 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 33% | -0.46 |
| 13/05/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 30% | +0.04 |
| 20/06/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 13% | -0.14 |
| 23/07/2026 | 8th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 04/08/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 40% | -0.42 |
| 25/08/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 60% | -0.01 |
| 07/09/2026 | 1st | 4/5 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |