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6

Blake James

4yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 79

Thistledown · Race 2 - Allowance · 6f

#2

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

78%

Place Prob

57%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Turfway Park 20/03/2025 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 83 · 6f110y Fas 118 · below its mark20/03/2025 · OR 83 par20/03C8OR 83C5 @ Thistledown 22/04/2025 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 88 · 6f Fas 115 · below its mark22/04/2025 · OR 88 parC5 @ Thistledown 23/06/2025 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 87 · 6f Fas 115 · below its mark23/06/2025 · OR 87 par23/06C5OR 87C5 @ Thistledown 12/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 76 · 6f Fas 119 · below its mark12/05/2026 · OR 76 parC5 @ Thistledown 03/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 72 · 6f 119 · beat its mark03/06/2026 · OR 72 par3/06C5OR 72C5 @ Thistledown 23/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 72 · 6f Fas 119 · beat its mark23/06/2026 · OR 72 parC5 @ Thistledown 28/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 77 · 6f 119 · beat its mark28/07/2026 · OR 77 par28/07C5OR 77C5 @ Thistledown 12/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 79 · 6f Fas 119 · beat its mark12/08/2026 · OR 79 parC5 @ Thistledown 31/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 78 · 6f 123 · below its mark31/08/2026 · OR 78 par31/08C5OR 78projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-31Thistledown?5th5th0
2026-08-12Thistledown?1st1st0
2026-07-28Thistledown?3rd3rd0
2026-06-23Thistledown?2nd2nd0
2026-06-03Thistledown?2nd2nd0
2026-05-12Thistledown?5th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/0312/0528/0731/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength98%

Delivery trend +5.6% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/03/20256th13/266%44%-0.21
22/04/20254th7/282%57%-0.24
23/06/20257th12/137%14%-0.23
12/05/20265th6/168%20%-0.48
03/06/20262nd8/158%80%+0.22
23/06/20262nd4/179%86%+0.07
28/07/20263rd7/163%75%+0.12
12/08/20261st6/168%100%+0.32
31/08/20265th9/153%43%-0.10