4
Call Shadd
4yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 79
Thistledown · Race 2 - Allowance · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-21 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-22 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 7th | 10th | −3 |
| 2026-02-14 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 9th | 10th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength66%
Delivery trend -4.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/03/2025 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 08/04/2025 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 17/01/2026 | 1st | 5/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 14/02/2026 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 22/03/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 03/06/2026 | 6th | 11/4 | 86% | 0% | -0.86 |
| 23/06/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 21/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 67% | -0.10 |
| 31/08/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 86% | +0.25 |