3
Metaphor
5yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 86
Thistledown · Race 2 - Allowance · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-11 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-06-11 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-05-25 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-05-16 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 640% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▲
Strength90%
Delivery trend +2.5% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/02/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 29% | +0.13 |
| 08/03/2026 | 5th | 6/5 | 94% | 56% | -0.38 |
| 15/04/2026 | 7th | 15/2 | 61% | 33% | -0.27 |
| 16/05/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 38% | -0.15 |
| 25/05/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 80% | -0.06 |
| 11/06/2026 | 3rd | 1/1 | 95% | 60% | -0.35 |
| 27/07/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 86% | +0.17 |
| 11/08/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 31/08/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 71% | +0.03 |