1
Saving Heart
4yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 86
Thistledown · Race 2 - Allowance · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength15%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-17 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-04 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-21 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-29 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-08 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 60% of fieldRange 3-4 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength51%
Delivery trend -4.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/04/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 25/04/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 16/05/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 08/06/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 75% | -0.16 |
| 29/06/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 21/07/2026 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 83% | -0.09 |
| 04/08/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 17/08/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 31/08/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 57% | -0.25 |