5
Whiskey Point
3yo Colt · 8-3 · OR 91
Thistledown · Race 2 - Allowance · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
19%
Place Prob
28%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 3.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-12 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-01 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-08 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-20 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 2-4 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength59%
Delivery trend -0.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/04/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 17/04/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 80% | +0.27 |
| 07/05/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 71% | -0.17 |
| 20/05/2026 | 2nd | 8/13 | 97% | 80% | -0.17 |
| 08/06/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 80% | -0.08 |
| 01/07/2026 | 1st | 4/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 28/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 75% | -0.13 |
| 12/08/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 71% | -0.11 |
| 03/09/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |