4
David's Gem
9yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 77
Thistledown · Race 3 - Claiming · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 3.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-03 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-18 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-02-03 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-10-07 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-09-03 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-08-05 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 640% of fieldRange 4-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength12%
Delivery trend +0.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/12/2024 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 38% | -0.44 |
| 29/01/2025 | 6th | 9/4 | 88% | 0% | -0.88 |
| 12/06/2025 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 67% | -0.20 |
| 05/08/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 89% | +0.10 |
| 03/09/2025 | 3rd | 6/4 | 92% | 33% | -0.59 |
| 07/10/2025 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 03/02/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 38% | -0.36 |
| 18/03/2026 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 50% | -0.39 |
| 03/04/2026 | 4th | 11/10 | 94% | 40% | -0.54 |